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The Financial Pen's avatar

Thanks for shining the light on Lyft, i like the potential M&A prospects you highlighted. I have a view on the Waymo-Uber dynamic; posted in my latest article (link below) , hope you can have a look and happy to discuss more ideas and perspectives - https://substack.com/home/post/p-162103473

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Daniel Magen's avatar

There is a discrepancy b/w David's comment and the data provided by Yipit - "When Waymo launched in August 2023, Uber and Lyft were at 66% and 34% share in SF. 15 months later in November 2024, Waymo is at 22% - the same as Lyft - with Uber at 55%. "

The discrepancy probably derives from the fact that Uber and Lyft usage today involves driving outside of the city, which is unaddressable by waymo (and thus excluded from yipit analysis).

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Max232's avatar

Hi Stefan,

danke für den Pitch, hatte Lyft bis dato nie am Radar! Eine kleine Anmerkung ... was Lyft bei der Conversion von EBITDA zu FCF helfen wird sind die hohen Net operating losses (NOL).

Auszug aus 10K 2023: "As of December 31, 2023, we had $7.7 billion of federal and $6.4 billion of state net operating losses (“NOLs”) available to reduce future taxable income, which will

begin to expire in 2034 for federal income tax purposes and in 2024 for state income tax purposes."

Ärgerlich ist hier allerdings die hohe Dilution mit 7% CAGR. Hast du da evtl. dazu was gelesen wie sich die Dilution lt Unternehmen weiterentwickelt könnte die kommenden Jahre?

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Stefan Waldhauser's avatar

Yes, we have to keep an eye on dilution. I expect it to come significantly down over the next 2-3 years. https://stocksguide.com/en/charts/Lyft-US55087P1049?metrics%5B%5D=shares_outstanding&stocks%5B%5D=Lyft-US55087P1049&data_format=normalized&date_range=threeYears

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