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Just a few months ago, my investment thesis on People Inc. was relatively straightforward. Although the former IAC Holding had become significantly more focused following its rebranding, the investment case remained a sum-of-the-parts story at its core. This included the large stake in MGM, cash at the holding company level, People Inc. as the operating publishing business, and a few smaller holdings, such as Turo. The market continued to apply a substantial conglomerate discount to this structure. The details can be found here:
It is precisely this thesis that has now undergone a decisive shift.
The MGM Takeover Offer
People Inc. submitted a non-binding cash offer of $48.30 per share to MGM Resorts. People Inc. already holds 26.1% of MGM’s shares and aims to hold 50.1% following a potential transaction.
As a reminder: The MGM stake dates back to 2020. At that time, IAC initially acquired approximately 12% of MGM’s shares for about $1 billion, as MGM was under severe pressure during the pandemic. In the following years, IAC gradually increased its stake through additional purchases on the open market and by taking advantage of MGM’s substantial share buybacks. As a result, IAC’s stake has grown to over 26%.
With the proposed 50.1% stake, MGM would effectively be under People’s control, and it is expected to be delisted as part of the transaction. The remaining shares held by minority investors would then be held in a private structure. The transaction will be financed with cash from People and MGM, as well as additional debt and equity.
The offer is not yet binding. MGM has confirmed receipt of the offer. The MGM board is currently reviewing it with advisors. The parties emphasize that there is no certainty as to whether an agreement will be reached, what the price will be, or what the timeframe will be.
Nevertheless, I now believe that the likelihood of a transaction is high. Over the years, Barry Diller has systematically bought into MGM. As a board member, he has repeatedly emphasized that he has long considered MGM to be “wildly undervalued.” He would likely not make his plans public unless he had secured the MGM board’s approval and financing behind the scenes.
Why People’s Stock Is Rising
People’s stock is currently trading at around $47, which, adjusted for the ANGI spinoff in 2025, is its highest level in three years. Over the past eight months, it has gained 50 percent.
In my view, there are three main reasons for this.
First, the market long underestimated the old IAC holding structure because the most recent spinoffs (Match Group, Vimeo, Angi) were not very successful after separating.
Second, through the sale of Care.com, the winding down of its AI-disrupted search business, its rebranding, and its focus on share buybacks, IAC has made it clear that it is streamlining its operations rapidly.
Third, the MGM offer reveals what Barry Diller could do with the MGM stake: take control of one of the world’s largest hotel and casino chains, rather than sell or hold it passively.
However, this also makes the People/IAC investment story riskier for the following reasons:
